Are you lonelier than your colleagues? // Strategic Bitcoin Reserve // My conversation with a former PE investor // MI5 declassification //
Things I've been thinking about this week.
Dear Friend,
Welcome to this week’s Air Supply.
Are you lonelier than your colleagues?
I've spent time this week thinking about loneliness.
I’ve been lonely in the past but I'm lucky enough to have a young family keeping that in check. If anything, sometimes I crave a little bit of loneliness to recharge my batteries.
Many of the world’s most valuable companies aim to make human connection easier, yet since their founding loneliness has become more widespread, impacting our work and our health.
Dr. Vivek Murthy, former Surgeon General of the United States, recently wrote: “Loneliness and weak social connections are associated with a reduction in lifespan similar to that caused by smoking 15 cigarettes a day”.
Some of the reasons why will surprise no one:
The pandemic and the aftershocks: technology made it possible to work remotely resulting in often better work life balance but sometimes with little contact with others for days on end
Social media: we are connected in ways which no one could previously have thought possible but those connections are often shallow, celebrating quantity over quality, followers over meaningful friendships
With genuine human interaction in our day-to-day lives becoming less common, many people look to work as a way of finding friends, maybe a relationship and a sense of connection and meaning with others.
All of the evidence suggests that, sadly, this doesn’t really work either. A survey by Better Up found that:
69% of employees reported that they were unsatisfied with their social connections at work
43% of people don't feel a sense of connection with their colleagues.
When employees lacked human connection they were 128% more lonely, 107% more anxious, 78% more likely to feel burned out and 49% more stressed.
I’m sceptical that AI bots will make us less lonely. The movie Her, examined this is 2013. Back then it felt very far-fetched but Andreessen Horowitz published an article 10 years later in 2023 on the opportunities of AI companion apps. They conclude that “Generative AI models will fundamentally change our relationship with computers, putting them beside us as coworkers, friends, family members, and even lovers”.
If loneliness is like smoking 15 cigarettes a day, then I can’t help thinking that AI companions are like disposable pina flavoured vapes - quick fixes with a synthetic allure.
My guess is that we will always crave the imperfections and flaws of a real person.
Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
Like many people, in the month of January, I think about the year ahead. My predictions are rarely, if ever, correct. But I take comfort in becoming more informed about things that I will definitely be wrong about in the future.
One of these things, is cryptocurrency. I was surprised to read that roughly half of corporate donations during the 2024 US presidential election, $245m dollars according to the federal election commission, came from the crypto industry. Coinbase alone contributed $75m.
I’m no crypto bro but I was struck that these donations and implications haven’t received much attention. The incoming Republicans administration is likely to deliver on their pledge for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The US may well buy 3-400,000 BTC in year one.
The US does hold other strategic reserves. For example, it stores three quarters of a billion barrels of oil underground in case of emergencies.
Tyler Cowan from George Mason University said in July 2024 that if the US state bought Bitcoin, the Dollar would strengthen as the world's reserve currency, whilst preventing Bitcoin being used as leverage by bad actors.
However, it would be a curious decision for several reasons. One, unlike oil, Bitcoin is not crucial to running the economy. It doesn't heat our homes or fuel our fighter jets. Two, it would carry huge economic risks. Would the U.S state and therefore the US taxpayer be responsible for bailing out Bitcoin speculators in the event of a crash? Three, the ideological motivations behind Bitcoin and cryptocurrency want to keep money out of the control of government.
As someone who remains pretty uninformed on crypto, the emergence of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in 2025 means business leaders will need to consider the opportunities and implications of a potential ‘legitimate’ cryptocurrency. I don’t think we’ll start receiving Bitcoin as payment in 2025, but stranger things have happened.
My conversation with a former private equity investor
This week I recorded the first episode of my podcast series. My guest was a former private equity investor and investment banker who worked at leading global financial institutions for 10 years.
It was a wide ranging and fascinating conversation about the journeys of people who sit in our boardrooms making big multi billion pound decisions. I was reminded once again that while we’re all quite different, the personal challenges we face are universal.
MI5 Declassification
This week, MI5 declassified files covering activity from 1909 to the mid-70s. One of the files is a guide to the art of being a spy.
These instructions lay out the key ingredients to be successful in national intelligence.
The fantasist in me wanted to see if I might be a potential candidate:
The manual states that “the ideal operative is a rather nondescript type”. That sounds like me - I can confirm that more than once people I've considered to be friends of mine have stared at me blankly and asked me to remind them of my name when I’ve greeted them at a party.
“The ideal watcher should not be more than five foot seven inches or five foot eight inches, looking as unlike a policeman as possible”. That’s a half yes. I'm far too scruffy to look like a policeman and even though sometimes I overstate my height I am genuinely just over 6 foot.
When following a person of interest, “choose, if possible, a modern cab for following and enthuse a little extra activity into the driver in order that he may avoid the suspect’s detecting the following cab in mirrors or from the rear window,” it suggests. “Concoct a suitable tale which may go down well with the cabby, such as a divorce case, absconding husband or wife, and promise the driver a good tip.” This I need to work on, particularly my skillset for entertaining drivers with suitable tales. I once told a story to a cabbie so boring that he almost fell asleep at the wheel. I can’t recall if my tip was generous. I suspect neither could he.
I've concluded I'm not the ideal candidate for MI5. However, if anyone needs a ‘natural’ anaesthetist, I'm happy to come over and tell you one of my stories.
Very good - I enjoyed it, and for reference - I was 81% satisfied with the level of social connection in the international SL workforce. The missing 9% can be attributed to poorly made cups of tea either by you or Will.